Български
EnglishVitko Vichev (Витко Вичев) and Petya Gold (Петя Голд) talk with Maria Ilieva (Мария Илиева) about the inevitable introduction of the euro, the economic risks facing Bulgaria, and the political repression against the “Velichie” party (партия „Величие“).
We present to you the edited transcript of the conversation, structured by topics and cleared of the errors and repetitions typical of spoken speech.
Introduction and greetings
Vitko: Hello everyone. Happy New Year! Stay with us until the end of the live broadcast. This evening our guest is Ms. Maria Ilieva (Мария Илиева) – a financial expert from the “Velichie” party (партия „Величие“). The most important issues in the state will be revealed tonight. Good evening, Ms. Ilieva.
Maria Ilieva: Good evening. First of all, Happy New Year to everyone. May it be productive and successful, may we all be healthy and strong, and may we succeed in the task we have undertaken.
The return of the lev and the eurozone
Vitko: We start strongly with the most important question: Is the lev coming back? Can the Bulgarian lev return? There is information circulating that procedures are underway and that a decision from the European Court (Европейския съд) is expected. If this happens, does it mean that the government of Borisov and Peevski (Борисов и Пеевски) has committed fraud?
Maria Ilieva: I would very much like to tell you good news at the beginning of the year, but unfortunately the news is not such. As far as I can give an opinion, this is a process that at the moment is irreversible by legal means. If a major shift occurs in Bulgaria’s foreign policy or within the European Union (Европейския съюз), it might be possible, but I believe we are late. The decision was taken long ago, the money has been spent, the banknotes have been printed and minted.
My personal opinion is that everything related to the euro – the failure to meet the Maastricht criteria (Маастрихтските критерии), the lack of a government and a budget – is very well known in Europe and in the European Central Bank (European Central Bank – Европейската централна банка, ЕЦБ). Despite this, the euro was accepted. That is, its adoption is not linked to economic indicators, but is a political decision taken at a high level. In my view, it is not subject to reversal either for legal or for economic reasons. Bulgaria was in a much more favorable position years ago, when we met the criteria, but it did not happen then. Now it is happening for political reasons.
Regarding the lawsuits of other parties – I assume this is an election campaign. If they wanted to do something, they could have done it much earlier. Their current actions are populist and give people false hopes.
Hypothetical breakup of the EU and the treaties
Maria Ilieva: Even if the European Union (Европейският съюз) were hypothetically to break up, there would have to be a new mechanism for regulating relations, similar to Brexit (Брекзит). This would be a long process of struggle for dominance and distribution of assets. The eurozone treaty is the only such union that has no regulated exit, which makes it restrictive and even short-sighted. There is no way to know what will happen in 30 or 50 years. History shows that the expected convergence of living standards has not occurred.
Vitko: Are Borisov and Peevski (Борисов и Пеевски) the biggest beneficiaries of joining the euro?
Maria Ilieva: They are the people who most wanted the euro to be introduced and did not want to listen to the people. But I will disappoint you – they do not want it because of the currency itself, but because they are forced. This is the only mechanism for their survival. They had no interest in it, because control by the European Central Bank (European Central Bank – Европейската централна банка, ЕЦБ) over the budget and finances will be serious and will disrupt their comfort, but they had no choice.
Fraud with the criteria and economic indicators
Vitko: Can the individuals who participated in submitting false data on inflation and deficit be prosecuted?
Maria Ilieva: They know what Bulgaria’s indicators are; this is no secret. We did not strictly meet the criterion for inflation to be sustainably below 3%. Even on July 8 we were at 3.04%, and before that at higher values. The European institutions (европейските институции) know this, but they do not take the decision based on the official data, otherwise they would have postponed us. They immediately congratulated Bulgaria, because the decision is political. Economic figures are being played with in front of the public, but the truth is behind the scenes.
Comparison with the Greek crisis
Maria Ilieva: The Greek scenario (гръцкият сценарий) is illustrative. When a state accumulates debts that it cannot repay, creditors impose a sell-off of assets. In Greece (Гърция), this happened with ports, airports, and revenues from cultural sites such as the Acropolis (Акропола). Part of the revenues go directly to debt repayment. In addition, new taxes are imposed, the administration is cut, and pensions and social payments are frozen.
The same can happen in Bulgaria. Until now, we were in a better situation because of the currency board (валутния борд), which disciplined us not to print money without backing and to maintain reserves. This protected us from massive debts. But recently the government has been increasing wages in the administration through borrowing, not through real production. This “growth” of GDP is based on consumption from borrowed funds.
When external creditors assess Bulgaria, they will see that the economy does not produce enough added value to cover the growing debts. In 2028 alone, the interest on our debts will amount to 1.8 billion.
Budget under ECB control
Vitko: What will happen to Bulgaria’s budget?
Maria Ilieva: The budget will be reviewed by the European Central Bank (European Central Bank – Европейската централна банка, ЕЦБ). Since we have a deficit, they will examine the revenue side. The International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund – Международният валутен фонд, МВФ) has already recommended the return of progressive taxation, increases in property and dividend taxes. They will demand the end of subsidies for electricity, water, and BDZ (Bulgarian State Railways – БДЖ), because state-owned companies must operate on market principles. Privatization or concession will likely follow.
On the expenditure side, cuts will be imposed on the administration, which is twice as large as Germany’s as a percentage. Pensions and social payments will be frozen to close the deficit. We will no longer be making decisions about our own finances.
The EU economic model: center and periphery
Maria Ilieva: The big picture is who benefits from the European Union (Европейският съюз). We start from a much lower position compared to Germany or France. Strong economies extract our young and qualified people, who go there for higher wages. Thus, they receive a ready-made resource that pays taxes there.
On the other hand, they use our markets for their goods. Large retail chains kill local competition and export profits. The so-called EU funds (еврофондове) often return back to the donor states through mandatory purchases of their equipment or technologies (for example, in the energy sector). They impose production quotas on us so that we do not threaten their output. Thus, we lose economic sovereignty and the opportunity for development.
Vitko: Is there a chance that Borisov and Peevski (Борисов и Пеевски) will be shaken by protests?
Maria Ilieva: They are dependent and trapped. For them, this is a matter of survival. Hungary, Poland, and Romania (Унгария, Полша и Румъния) are trying to defend their national interest, but our rulers have surrendered completely.
Political alternative and the role of “Velichie”
Vitko: What can “Velichie” (Величие) do if it gains a majority?
Maria Ilieva: At the very least, it will not steal money from the state. We will direct efforts toward developing the economy so that we depend on ourselves. When you are economically strong, you can negotiate on equal footing. We must restore production, energy, and agriculture. We must create conditions for young and knowledgeable people to return. The defeatist position that “no one will allow us” serves only the current власти.
Vitko: Regarding the repression – is it true that people from “Historical Park” (Исторически парк) are being kept hungry in detention?
Maria Ilieva: Yes, the conditions are harsh. Visits are allowed once every two weeks. They do not allow food, water, or medicine to be brought in, only cigarettes. The goal is to break them physically and psychologically so that they give false testimony, since there is no real evidence. This is a political order and an attempt to destroy a working model that is a threat to the status quo.
The real estate market
Vitko: Will property prices rise with the introduction of the euro?
Maria Ilieva: I think prices have already risen enough and have reached their peak. They may even fall, because the market is saturated and the population is heavily indebted. The lack of infrastructure – streets, electricity, water, sewage – devalues properties, regardless of how luxurious the buildings are. In addition, if taxes on second and third homes are increased, many people will start selling, which will flood the market.
Conclusion
Vitko: What is the way out?
Maria Ilieva: The only way out is to become economically strong. We must increase revenues through production, not through loans. “Historical Park” (Исторически парк) and the model of Ivelin Mihaylov (Ивелин Михайлов) have shown that this is possible even under difficult conditions. The euro is just one element of the picture. What matters is to have governance that thinks about the people and protects the national interest. We must stop waiting for aid that makes us dependent and roll up our sleeves.
Vitko: Thank you, Ms. Ilieva. Stay healthy and well!
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